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Statistical Guides

Linear or Logistic Regression?

The outcome decides. A continuous outcome goes to linear regression; a yes/no outcome goes to logistic.

Linear regression models the average level of a continuous outcome — income, score, duration.

Logistic regression models the probability of a binary outcome — employed or not, insured or not, screened or not. Its coefficients are read as odds ratios, not as units of the outcome.

Forcing a binary outcome into a linear model produces predicted probabilities below zero and above one. That is not a rounding problem; it is a sign the model does not fit the question.

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