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Statistical Guides

How Is a ROC Curve Read?

It shows the trade-off between catching true cases and raising false alarms, across every possible cut-off.

Each point on the curve is one threshold. Moving along the curve trades sensitivity against specificity; there is no setting that improves both.

The area under the curve summarises discrimination in a single number, where 0.5 is no better than chance.

The right threshold is not a statistical question. It depends on what a missed case costs compared with a false alarm.

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